State Employment Population Ratios
States with the highest employment population ratios tend to be Republican states.[1] The following is a ranking of states by employment population ratio, current as of December 2014, their Democratic advantage according to Gallup,[2] Representatives/Senators in Congress by party,[3] party breakdown in the state legislature,[4] and how they voted in the 2012 presidential election.[5] Ultimately 14 of the 20 states with lowest unemployment rates had Republican advantages according to Gallup polling.
List of States by Employment-Population Ratio
Determination of whether a state is Republican or Democrat is based solely on the Gallup data (Democrat Advantage); the state's ratios for Congress, the state legislature, and 2012 presidential election results are merely provided for informational purposes. For example, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Virginia all voted for Obama in 2012 but Gallup polling reveals they are primarily Republican, and thus they are labeled Republican here, particularly since their legislative elections reveal them to be Republican. On the other hand Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have elected more Republicans at both the state and federal levels than Democrats, but are labeled as Democrat states because Gallup polling shows they have Democrat Advantages. States which could be classified as definite swing states include Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
RANK | STATE | RATE | PARTY | DEM. ADV. | CONGRESS | STATE LEG. | ROMNEY VOTE | OBAMA VOTE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | North Dakota | 69.6% | Republican | -25% | 2/3 R | 104/143 R | 59% | 39% |
2 | Nebraska | 68.8% | Republican | -16% | 4/5 R | NP | 61% | 38% |
3 | Iowa | 67.5% | Republican | -2% | 5/6 R | 80/149 R | 46% | 52% |
4 | Minnesota | 67.4% | Democrat | 6% | 7/10 D | 101/201 D | 45% | 53% |
5 | South Dakota | 67.2% | Republican | -17% | 3/3 R | 84/103 R | 58% | 40% |
6 | New Hampshire | 66.3% | Republican | -4% | 2/4 R | 253/424 R | 46% | 52% |
7 | Vermont | 65.5% | Democrat | 19% | 3/3 D | 118/180 D | 31% | 67% |
8T | Utah | 65.3% | Republican | -32% | 6/6 R | 85/104 R | 73% | 25% |
8T | Wyoming | 65.3% | Republican | -40% | 3/3 R | 77/90 R | 69% | 28% |
10 | Kansas | 65.2% | Republican | -21% | 6/6 R | 130/165 R | 60% | 38% |
11T | Colorado | 65.0% | Republican | -4% | 5/9 R | 50/100 R | 47% | 51% |
11T | Wisconsin | 65.0% | Democrat | 1% | 6/10 R | 80/130 R | 46% | 53% |
13 | Alaska | 63.5% | Republican | -20% | 3/3 R | 37/60 | 55% | 41% |
14 | Virginia | 62.5% | Republican | -1% | 8/13 R | 89/140 R | 48% | 51% |
15 | Maryland | 62.2% | Democrat | 20% | 9/10 D | 123/188 D | 37% | 62% |
16T | Connecticut | 61.9% | Democrat | 16% | 7/7 D | 108/187 D | 40% | 58% |
16T | Texas | 61.9% | Republican | -4% | 27/38 R | 118/181 R | 57% | 41% |
18 | Massachusetts | 61.7% | Democrat | 21% | 11/11 D | 159/200 D | 38% | 61% |
19T | Missouri | 61.4% | Republican | -3% | 7/10 R | 142/196 R | 54% | 44% |
19T | Montana | 61.4% | Republican | -13% | 1/2 R | 88/150 R | 55% | 42% |
21 | Illinois | 60.9% | Democrat | 17% | 11/20 D | 110/177 D | 41% | 57% |
22 | Maine | 60.8% | Democrat | 6% | 2/4 D | 98/186 D | 41% | 56% |
23T | Idaho | 60.4% | Republican | -24% | 4/4 R | 84/105 R | 65% | 33% |
23T | Rhode Island | 60.4% | Democrat | 23% | 4/4 D | 97/113 D | 36% | 63% |
25 | New Jersey | 60.3% | Democrat | 16% | 8/14 D | 72/120 | 41% | 58% |
26 | Indiana | 60.0% | Republican | -4% | 8/11 R | 111/150 | 54% | 44% |
27 | Ohio | 59.8% | Democrat | 0% | 13/18 R | 83/132 R | 48% | 50% |
28T | Hawaii | 59.5% | Democrat | 24% | 4/4 D | 67/76 D | 28% | 71% |
28T | Washington | 59.5% | Democrat | 7% | 8/12 D | 75/147 D | 42% | 56% |
30 | Pennsylvania | 59.1% | Democrat | 3% | 14/20 R | 149/253 R | 47% | 52% |
31T | California | 58.1% | Democrat | 18% | 41/55 D | 78/120 D | 38% | 59% |
31T | Oklahoma | 58.1% | Republican | -13% | 7/7 R | 112/149 R | 67% | 33% |
33T | Delaware | 57.9% | Democrat | 17% | 3/3 D | 37/62 D | 40% | 59% |
33T | Nevada | 57.9% | Democrat | 3% | 4/6 R | 38/63 R | 46% | 52% |
35 | Oregon | 57.7% | Democrat | 7% | 6/7 D | 53/90 D | 43% | 54% |
36 | Georgia | 57.6% | Republican | -3% | 12/16 R | 155/234 R | 53% | 45% |
37 | Louisiana | 57.4% | Republican | -2% | 7/8 R | 85/144 | 58% | 41% |
38 | Florida | 56.9% | Democrat | 5% | 18/29 R | 103/155 R | 49% | 50% |
39 | New York | 56.9% | Democrat | 25% | 20/28 D | 137/213 | 36% | 63% |
40 | North Carolina | 56.5% | Republican | -1% | 12/15 R | 109/170 R | 51% | 48% |
41 | Michigan | 56.4% | Democrat | 9% | 9/16 R | 90/148 R | 45% | 54% |
42 | Arizona | 55.9% | Republican | -1% | 7/11 R | 53/90 R | 54% | 44% |
43T | Kentucky | 54.6% | Democrat | 2% | 7/8 R | 72/135 | 61% | 38% |
43T | South Carolina | 54.6% | Republican | -10% | 8/9 R | 103/167 R | 55% | 44% |
43T | Tennessee | 54.6% | Republican | -7% | 9/11 R | 100/132 R | 59% | 39% |
46 | New Mexico | 54.4% | Democrat | 11% | 4/5 D | 58/112 D | 43% | 53% |
47 | Arkansas | 54.3% | Republican | -4% | 6/6 R | 87/134 R | 61% | 37% |
48 | Alabama | 52.1% | Republican | -11% | 8/9 R | 98/129 R | 61% | 38% |
49 | Mississippi | 50.7% | Republican | -6% | 5/6 R | 98/174 R | 56% | 44% |
50 | West Virginia | 49.6% | Democrat | 1% | 4/5 R | 82/134 | 62% | 36% |
Notes
- Nebraska's state legislature is Nonpartisan/Unicameral and thus party breakdown cannot be provided, this is indicated by a value of "NP."
- Since Independents overwhelmingly caucus as Democrats, they were classified as Democrats when counting Congress/State Legislature ratios. The only state really affected by this was Vermont which had 11 Independents at the state level and 1 at the federal level.
- A "T" at the end of a rank indicates a tie between states for that rank.
Analysis
Gallup polling generally lines up with how states voted for president in 2012. While states have increasingly become more Republican since 2012, the Gallup polling largely represents the ideology which has governed state employment in recent years, and a state's identity is generally clear. There are two states which should arguably be identified as Republican despite Gallup polling indicating they are narrowly Democrat, Kentucky and West Virginia. According to Gallup they narrowly polled Democrat, with 2% and 1% Democrat advantages respectively, yet both have elected more Republicans to both the state and federal legislature, and voted for Romney in 2012.
I was personally very surprised by how much these rankings differ from state unemployment rate rankings. Some states like Alaska, Hawaii, and California had ranking differences greater than 20. As a result, I am very skeptical of the methodology used in acquiring this state-specific data because it differs so much from the other rankings I have seen.
Sources
- ↑ Bureau of Labor Statistics (2014, April 18). Civilian Noninstitutional Population and Associated Rate and Ratio Measures for Model-Based Areas. Region, Division, and State Employment-Population Ratios with Confidence Intervals, Their Relationships to the U.S. Ratio, and Over-the-Month Ratio Changes with Significance Indicators United States Department of Labor. <http://www.bls.gov/lau/rdscnp16.htm>
- ↑ Saad, L. (2014, January 29). Not as Many U.S. States Lean Democratic in 2013. Gallup. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/167030/not-states-lean-democratic-2013.aspx>
- ↑ Members of Congress: North Dakota. GovTrack.us. <https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/ND>
- ↑ Legislative Control 2015. StateScape. <http://www.statescape.com/resources/partysplits/partysplits.aspx>
- ↑ 2012 Presidential Race. NBC News. <http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president>